City may have waited their entire history to lift the biggest prize in club football, but all signs point to them doing it again
Manchester City's road to winning their first-ever Champions League last year in Istanbul was long, arduous and fraught with endless potholes. They failed to get out of the group stage in their first two seasons in Europe's elite competition, and in the second they failed to win a single game and picked up just three points, the lowest achieved by any English club.
They then suffered successive eliminations to Barcelona in the last 16 and were frustratingly passive in their semi-final defeat to Real Madrid in 2016. There was the emphatic 5-1 humiliation on aggregate at the hands of Liverpool in 2018, sandwiched by agonisingly close eliminations by Monaco and Tottenham on away goals. But perhaps 2020 was the worst, as they were somehow beaten by Lyon, a game that made Pep Guardiola so upset he came close to quitting.
More heartache awaited in the 2021 final defeat to Chelsea in Porto and the chastening semi-final loss to Real Madrid a year later, before they finally got over the line at the Ataturk Stadium. City sure did it the hard way and no one could say they did not deserve to finally get their hands on club football's holy grail.
But after waiting so long for their maiden triumph and thinking they might never do it, there seems little in the way of Guardiola and his relentless squad going all the way again.
City's quest to become only the second team to retain the trophy in the Champions League era begins in earnest with Tuesday's last-16 first leg in Copenhagen, but all signs point to them making it all the way to the Wembley final in June and lifting the big eared trophy once more…
GettyDon't listen to Pep
Guardiola insisted last week that his side have a '99.99 percent' chance of not repeating last year's historic treble, but he was fooling no one. City are in ominous form in all competitions, winning a 10th consecutive game by sinking Everton 2-0 on Saturday.
They are the favourites to win the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup. Indeed, gamblers can get a better price on Paris Saint-Germain winning the Champions League than on City doing another clean sweep of the major honours.
Of course, there are more than three months to go and football has a remarkable capacity for the unexpected to unfold. But City are approaching the business end of the season with their usual sense of hunger and assuredness. And while Guardiola might not want to entertain treble talk at the moment, he cannot say the same of some of his players.
"Yes, obviously I think we can," Alvarez told GOAL last month when asked if winning three trophies was again achievable. "In the final few months of the season, we’re fighting for all the competitions, we’re good as a group and I think we can do it… It’s not just him (Guardiola) and his demands, it’s a bit of us too. We’re very competitive and we always want to go for more and that’s what we’re doing this season, trying to do it again."
AdvertisementGetty ImagesThe cavalry is back
City have had their setbacks this season, not least in Kevin De Bruyne tearing his hamstring and missing five months. They have also lost John Stones for large chunks of the campaign and then had to make do without Erling Haaland for two months.
The trio are, however, all fit and firing again: Haaland is back in devastating form after his lethal strikes against Everton while De Bruyne has five assists and a goal in his six appearances since returning to action, despite only starting twice.
They have also missed the box-to-box presence of Ilkay Gundogan and the reliable squad players like Riyad Mahrez. But as ever, Guardiola has found solutions, reinventing Phil Foden as a central midfielder, successfully integrating new arrivals Jeremy Doku and Mateo Kovacic, while getting even more out of Alvarez.
Kyle Walker has fought his way back from the fringes of the team to become the captain while Rodri is indisputably the finest holding midfielder in the the world. Indeed, a year has passed since the last time City lost a match while their Spanish midfield lynchpin was playing.
City spend a lot of the season preparing for the final three months of the campaign, when the biggest prizes are on the line and the schedule is at its most unforgiving. Guardiola has made a habit of rotating his squad throughout the season – with a couple of exceptions like Rodri and Walker – to ensure his players still feel fresh when the key games arrive.
And while he never envisaged having the likes of De Bruyne and Haaland out for so long, their injury-enforced absences mean they have at least had time to recharge their batteries, both physically and mentally.
Getty ImagesMadrid's defensive woes
Even though City face formidable title rivals in Arsenal and Liverpool, there is a sense that they will be too strong when push comes to shove and that they eventually home in on a historic fourth English league crown. However, a glance at goings on across the continent suggests they will face even fewer obstacles in their bid to retain the Champions League.
Real Madrid are the second-favourites to win Europe's top prize behind City, and there is clearly something special being built by Carlo Ancelotti this season, in no small part helped by the brilliance of Jude Bellingham, who has scored 20 goals across La Liga and the Champions League already.
Madrid, who look primed to win the Spanish title after slaying closest challengers Girona 4-0, will surely get past RB Leipzig in the last 16 – even with Bellingham set to miss the first leg due to injury – and will undoubtedly be a daunting opponent for City should their paths cross for a third consecutive season. Their 14 European Cups alone is enough to intimidate anyone.
Ancelotti's side, however, have been beset by dreadful injury problems, leading the Italian coach to line up with an unrecognisable back four against Girona, playing winger Lucas Vazquez at right-back, full-back Dani Carvajal at centre-half alongside usual midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni.
Eder Militao should be back from his serious knee injury by mid-March and relieve some of those problems, but David Alaba is out for the rest of the season. Thibaut Courtois, such a key part of Real's last Champions League triumph in 2022, has missed the whole season with torn knee ligaments and is not due back until May.
Madrid have coped admirably with such big losses, but if up against a full-strength City side, it is easy to envisage Guardiola's side prevailing again, having hammered Los Blancos 5-1 on aggregate in last season's semi-finals.
GettyBayern are floundering
Third-favourites are Bayern, who also have an outstanding European history but are being outshone in the Bundesliga by Xabi Alonso's dynamic Bayer Leverkusen, who played them off the park in a stunning 3-0 win in Saturday's top-of-the-table clash.
Support for Thomas Tuchel, who never convinced large swathes of the Bayern fanbase in the first place after the reckless decision to sack Julian Nagelsmann last year, is at an all-time low. And questions are even being asked of top scorer Harry Kane, with some believing that the England captain's thirst for goal records has come at the expense of the team's balance.
Although Bayern comfortably beat City's neighbours Manchester United home and away in the group stage, it seems likely that Guardiola's side would blow them away if they were to meet again in the latter rounds, having beaten them 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium last year.